History and mysteries · Double Trouble State Park and Ocean County
Double Trouble: the dangerous air above a fire (2002)
Documented history · Source reviewed
Researchers traced an unexpectedly fast-moving Ocean County wildfire to dry air and stronger winds mixing down from above.
A fire that outran expectations
The June 2, 2002 Double Trouble wildfire burned approximately 1,300 acres, damaged or destroyed ten homes and forced a Garden State Parkway closure, according to a Forest Service research team’s conference abstract.
The troubling feature was the unexpected combination of dryness and strong surface winds. It made the event a case study in conditions that can change faster than an ordinary forecast suggests.
What the model reconstructed
Joseph Charney and colleagues used the MM5 weather model to investigate. Their simulation linked the stronger winds to daytime mixing reaching air with greater momentum above a temperature inversion. They traced the unusually dry air to an upstream intrusion from the stratosphere roughly a day earlier.
These are the researchers’ modeled explanations, tested against available observations. They should not be described as direct measurements of every parcel of air over the fire. The study concerns rapid changes in fire weather; it does not establish an ignition cause.
Sources and research limits
Charney and colleagues, Mesoscale simulations during the Double Trouble State Park wildfire, 2003 AMS conference abstract. Forest Service conference paper, introduction and observations. Both represent the same research, not independent confirmations.